涟水县2013-2023年HIV/AIDS流行特征与死亡风险因素分析

Objective To explore the epidemic trend, incidence changes and death risk factors of HIV/AIDS in Lianshui County from 2013 to 2023, so as to provide a basis for formulating targeted prevention and control strategies. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on data of 292 confirmed cases from the HIV/AIDS case reporting system of Lianshui County centers for disease control and prevention(CDC). Descriptive statistics were used to analyze demographic characteristics, incidence and death status. Joinpoint regression model to analyze incidence trend, chisquare test and Logistic regression model to screen death risk factors. Results The number of HIV/AIDS cases increased from 8 to 43, showing a fluctuating upward trend with a peak of 48 in 2022. Joinpoint regression showed APC 95%CI contained 0 in all periods, so no definite incidence change was confirmed. Male cases rose from 7 to 34, female from 1 to 9. The overall mortality rate was 14.38%, with the highest in ≥61 years old group(23.91%), mortality of non-marital heterosexual contact group(21.05%) was significantly higher(P=0.031). Multivariate analysis showed that increased recent CD4+ T lymphocyte count reduced risk(OR=0.997). Conclusion The incidence of HIV/AIDS in Lianshui County is on the rise. Males, the elderly and non-marital heterosexual contacts are key prevention groups. Early screening, intervention, standardized CD4~+T cell monitoring and treatment should be strengthened to reduce mortality.