ISSN 2097-5724 CN 61-1535/R 主管·主办:陕西省疾病预防控制中心
疾病预防与控制 Disease Prevention and Control 医学学术期刊 双月刊
2026-05-021 心脑血管疾病与治疗 2026, 2(05): 81-84

多因素分析危重患者新发房颤人工智能预警模型的构建

深圳市前海蛇口自贸区医院

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摘要

目的 构建危重患者新发房颤人工智能(AI)预警模型,为临床早期识别高风险人群提供可靠工具。方法 采用回顾性研究设计,选取2024年9月至2025年6月我院危重症科的住院患者(317例)为研究对象,根据住院期间是否新发房颤分为房颤组(76例)与无房颤组(241例)。收集患者的时序数据、图像数据、文本数据、离散数据及临床药品使用情况等多维度信息,筛选房颤特征,通过支持向量机(SVM)、生成对抗网络(GAN)等构建AI预警模型,并采用SPSS 26.0、Python 3.8及Matlab 2021b进行数据统计与模型验证。结果经特征筛选后确定12个关键预测特征,最佳相关阈值为0.6(此时模型准确率达89.2%)。GAN-SVM融合模型在测试集中表现优异:准确率87.6%、灵敏度85.3%、特异度88.4%,受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)0.901,显著优于单一SVM模型(AUC=0.845,P<0.05)。结论 新发房颤AI预警模型可高效预测危重患者的新发房颤风险,模型采用的GAN技术有效解决了临床样本不平衡问题,筛选的关键特征则为临床精准防控指明了方向。

Abstract

Objective To construct an artificial intelligence(AI) early warning model for new-onset atrial fibrillation(AF) in critically ill patients, providing a reliable tool for early identification of high-risk individuals in clinical practice. Methods A retrospective study was conducted, involving 317 inpatients from the critical care unit of our hospital from September 2024 to June 2025. Patients were divided into the AF group(76 cases) and the non-AF group(241 cases) based on whether they developed new-onset AF during hospitalization. Multi-dimensional information including time-series data, imaging data, text data, discrete data, and clinical medication use was collected. Features of AF were screened, and an AI early warning model was constructed using support vector machine(SVM) and generative adversarial network(GAN). Data statistics and model validation were performed using SPSS 26.0, Python 3.8, and Matlab 2021b. Results After feature screening, 12 key predictive features were identified, with the optimal correlation threshold set at 0.6(at which the model accuracy reached 89.2%). The GAN-SVM fusion model performed exceptionally well in the test set: accuracy 87.6%, sensitivity 85.3%, specificity 88.4%, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC) was 0.901, significantly outperforming the single SVM model(AUC=0.845, P<0.05). Conclusion The AI early warning model for new-onset AF can efficiently predict the risk of new-onset AF in critically ill patients. The GAN technology adopted in the model effectively addresses the issue of imbalanced clinical samples, and the selected key features provide a direction for precise clinical prevention and control.

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[1]张楠,张海召,徐成卫,等.多因素分析危重患者新发房颤人工智能预警模型的构建[J].疾病预防与控制,2026,2(05):81-84.